A massive geological force may be waking beneath Italy — and the entire world could feel its effects. In May, the ground beneath the Phlegraean Fields trembled with a powerful 4.4-magnitude earthquake — the strongest in four decades. But that was just the beginning.
Over the past six months, the region has been rocked by more than 3,000 smaller quakes, forming a relentless swarm that scientists say is far from random. These seismic flurries are likely being caused by magma shifting deep beneath the ancient supervolcano’s caldera — a sign that something significant could be brewing.
While not every tremor signals an imminent eruption, the sheer volume and intensity of these quakes are raising red flags among volcanologists. With the potential to impact not just Europe, but the global climate and ecosystems, every rumble is being monitored with increasing urgency.
Gas Emissions Hit Alarming Highs
Adding to the concern, volcanic gas emissions in the area have surged to record-breaking levels, suggesting increased underground activity. As pressure builds beneath the surface, scientists are racing to decode what comes next — and how the world might prepare.
Crust Cracking Under Pressure: Gas Emissions Break Records
But it’s not just the trembling earth that has scientists on edge. Another ominous sign is rising from beneath the surface — quite literally. Every single day, the Campi Flegrei supervolcano is releasing an astonishing 4,000 to 5,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s an extraordinary amount for a volcano that has been relatively silent for centuries.
This surge in gas emissions is no coincidence. As magma creeps closer to the surface, it releases more trapped gases — a process that’s now happening at an alarming rate. The unprecedented levels of CO₂ point to a pressurized system reaching its tipping point.
Researchers say the crust in the area is starting to crack under the strain, a critical indicator that the region may be inching toward a volcanic event. While no one can predict the exact moment an eruption might occur, all the warning lights are flashing red.
Perhaps the most unsettling development yet: scientists now believe the ground beneath the caldera is transitioning from simply bending to actually cracking — a fundamental and dangerous shift. Unlike gradual warping, cracks in the Earth’s crust provide direct channels for magma to rise toward the surface.
This structural weakening marks one of the clearest warnings to date. For those monitoring the volcanic landscape near Naples, it signals that the supervolcano may no longer be just restless — it could be on the verge of awakening.
Every new fracture acts like a doorway, making it easier for magma to push through the crust. And with each tremor, each escaping plume of gas, the possibility of an eruption inches closer to reality.
A City in the Crosshairs: Millions at Risk
Aerial view of the marina in Pozzuoli, near Naples, Italy.
Source: Shutterstock
What makes Campi Flegrei especially dangerous isn’t just its geological power — it’s the people living in its shadow. The sprawling metropolitan area of Naples, along with towns like Pozzuoli, lies right next to this restless supervolcano. Together, they are home to millions.
Unlike volcanoes tucked away in remote regions, Campi Flegrei threatens densely populated urban centers — packed with homes, schools, hospitals, and critical infrastructure. An eruption here wouldn’t just be a natural disaster; it could be a humanitarian crisis on an unprecedented scale.
If the volcano were to erupt, pyroclastic flows, suffocating ash clouds, and toxic gases could engulf entire neighborhoods in minutes. That’s why local authorities are under mounting pressure to prepare detailed evacuation and emergency response plans — because when a supervolcano stirs near a major city, there’s no time to waste.
Campi Flegrei’s Violent Past Offers Stark Warnings
Monte Nuovo (New Mountain) — a cinder cone born from Campi Flegrei’s last eruption.
Naples, Campania, southern Italy.
To understand the threat Campi Flegrei poses today, scientists look to its explosive past — and what they find is chilling.
Nearly 40,000 years ago, this supervolcano unleashed one of the most catastrophic eruptions in Earth’s history. The blast was so immense it may have altered the climate and played a role in the extinction of Neanderthals across Europe. It was a global-scale event with consequences that stretched far beyond Italy.
Even more recently, in 1538, the region erupted again — forming Monte Nuovo, or “New Mountain,” in just a matter of days. This dramatic birth of a new volcano reshaped the landscape and served as a powerful reminder that Campi Flegrei doesn’t erupt often, but when it does, the results are swift and profound.
History has made one thing clear: this caldera is capable of sudden, life-altering change. And now, with modern signs pointing toward renewed unrest, the past offers vital clues to what the future might hold.
The Ground Is Rising: A Supervolcano on the Move
ITALY – Campania – Phlegraean Fields – Solfatara of Pozzuoli
Beneath the picturesque streets of Pozzuoli, the Earth is rising — and scientists are watching with growing concern.
Since 2005, the ground in this area has lifted nearly five feet. This phenomenon, known as bradyseism, occurs when magma and gas build up underground, pushing the surface upward like a slow-motion warning sign. In many places, such movement might be subtle or harmless — but not here.
In the volatile Campi Flegrei caldera, every inch of uplift is a red flag. It means pressure is building, magma is shifting, and the system beneath the surface is becoming more unstable. The land isn’t just rising — it’s swelling with potential energy.
For volcanologists, this steady climb is one more signal that the supervolcano isn’t just stirring — it’s preparing for something bigger.
The Global Impact of the Italian Supervolcano
3D sectional rendering of Campi Flegrei, Naples, Campania, Italy. Split of the ground.
Element of this image furnished by NASA.
If Campi Flegrei erupts, the devastation won’t stop at Italy’s shores — the consequences could ripple across the entire planet.
A major eruption could hurl volcanic ash high into the atmosphere, spreading a toxic veil across Europe. Flights could be grounded for weeks. Crops could be smothered. Air quality could plummet across borders. But that’s just the beginning.
Like Mount Tambora’s cataclysmic eruption in 1815 — which triggered the “Year Without a Summer” — Campi Flegrei has the power to alter global climate. Ash and sulfur dioxide released into the upper atmosphere could reflect sunlight, cooling the Earth for months or even years. This sudden drop in temperature could disrupt weather patterns, slash agricultural yields, and trigger food shortages across multiple continents.
The potential fallout is not just a local or regional emergency — it’s a planetary threat. Supervolcanoes like Campi Flegrei remind us that Earth’s deepest forces can have far-reaching, global consequences.
Watching and Waiting: Eyes on the Supervolcano
Almaty, Kazakhstan – 12.20.2023: Seismology experts analyze earthquake data.
No one can say for certain when — or if — Campi Flegrei will erupt. Volcanoes are unpredictable by nature, sometimes lying dormant for centuries before suddenly springing to life. But that uncertainty hasn’t stopped scientists from keeping constant watch.
Across the region, a network of satellites, sensors, and seismographs monitors every tremor, every gas release, and every inch of ground uplift. From deep within research labs to field stations near Naples, teams of volcanologists are analyzing data in real time, searching for patterns and warning signs.
For the millions living near the caldera, this round-the-clock vigilance could be life-saving. While nature will ultimately decide when the next eruption comes, human readiness — fueled by science — can make all the difference.
Until that day, the world can only do one thing: watch and wait.
A Sleeping Giant’s Uncertain Future
Aerial view of Lago d’Averno, a volcanic lake in the Campi Flegrei caldera near Pozzuoli, Naples, Italy.
For now, Campi Flegrei sleeps — but it is far from silent. The Earth shudders with quakes, gases rise in ever-increasing volumes, and the land itself swells under unseen pressure. These are not signs of peace, but of quiet unrest.
Volcanologists agree: this is no ordinary volcano. Campi Flegrei has the raw power to reshape landscapes, climates, and lives — not just in Italy, but across the globe. And while no one can say with certainty what the future holds, the evidence beneath Naples tells a story that demands attention.
So the scientists watch. The instruments measure. The world waits.
In the shadow of this sleeping giant, we’re reminded that nature doesn’t ask permission — and that true power often lies in what we cannot predict or control.
